3-Year Running 2024 NBA Big Board (v2.0)
Who's rising? Who's falling? And how does these trends compare to years of yonder?
Back in mid-December, I published the first version of my 3-Year Running NBA Big Board, capturing a general consensus of rankings around the beginning of the NCAA season. The idea was to not just monitor the prospects this year, but to start to compare how this class of prospects stacks up against those in the past. The process is simple - first I grabbed a handful of 2024 Big Boards from folks I trust, and calculated aggregate stats (Average, Median, Max/Min). I then did this for 2023 and 2022, maintaining a similar time frame (in this case late January - late February) for each year. From there, I can rank players across the three classes based on their average ranking within their respective class. Easy peasy.
In essence, we’re getting a composite ranking for each of the three draft classes (2022, 2023, and 2024) at a given snapshot of within the draft cycle. This particular snapshot will be our midseason review, and with the draft now four months away our order is far from set.
The Risers
Let’s check out a few prospects who rocked the boat as of late:
Tidjane Salaun (39 -> 18)
Yves Missi (39 -> 20)
DaRon Holmes II (39 -> 26)
Kwame Evans Jr (NR -> 33)
Devin Carter (NR -> 34)
Zach Edey (NR -> 34)
Kevin McCullar (31 -> 22)
PJ Hall (NR -> 36)
Reed Sheppard (20 -> 12)
Rob Dillingham (20 -> 13)
Tidjane Salaun and Yves Missi both swayed some folks with their stellar play; both are long, skilled bigs with a lot to learn but plenty of proven production over the past few months. DaRon Holmes II and Kevin McCullar both sneak up into the 20’s, while the KGB (Kentucky Guard Bench) duo of Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham were ruthless in eliminating the competition, sliding snugly in at the back of the lottery.
Now take a look at some of the fellas who headlined this group in 2022 and 2023:
Jalen Hood-Schifino (39 -> 15)
Taylor Hendricks (39 -> 17)
Colby Jones (40 -> 24)
Jordan Hawkins (40 -> 27)
Tari Eason (NR -> 19)
Jeremy Sochan (42 -> 16)
Johnny Davis (32 -> 8)
Ochai Agbaji (41 -> 18)
Of these players, only three were eventually selected at a draft slot below their rank at this time last year - Davis (10th), Hood-Schifino (17th) and Jones (34th). Only Hendricks (9th) and Hawkins (14th) were selected far higher than projected here.
The Fallers
On the other end of the spectrum, here are a few players whom my cherrypicked consensus have started to sour on:
D.J. Wagner (26 -> 37)
Isaiah Collier (3 -> 13)
Stephon Castle (10 -> 19)
Oso Ighodaro (30 -> 37)
As you’ll notice, I only listed four names here - those are the only four names from our initial Top 30 to drop more than two spots, compared to six such droppers in 2022 and eight such in 2023. Isaiah Collier inches closer and closer to the ledge of the lottery, clocking in a full TEN spots lower for a guy many were ranking #1 overall in December.
And again, our fallers from 2022 & 2023:
Dereck Lively II (21 -> 31)
Terquavion Smith (17 -> 26)
Marcus Sasser (31 -> 37)
Dariq Whitehead (10 -> 16)
Nikola Djurisic (32 -> 37)
Nick Smith Jr. (5 -> 9)
Jean Montero (12 -> 27)
Patrick Baldwin (6 -> 17)
Trevor Keels (26 -> 34)
Jaden Hardy (8 -> 15)
Mark Williams (27 -> 34)
Terquavion Smith and Jean Montero, two offensively gifted yet physically diminutive point guards, share an unfortunate distinction - both went undrafted in their respective drafts. Falling from fringe lottery range down to #27 was an alarming sign for Jean Montero, but Terq’s descent was less dramatic.
Conversely, take note of Mark Williams and Dereck Lively II - back to back Blue Devil bigmen came in as 5-star recruits, underperformed on a disorganized and youth-driven squad, and eventually learned to dominate in their respective roles. Lively and Williams were drafted #10 and #15 overall in their respective classes, despite falling out of the first round altogether around this same time in the draft cycle..
The Board
Let’s take a peek at the first 25 on the 3-Year Running board - note that Avg Rk denotes a player’s rank within their respective draft class. 3-Yr Rank ranks players across all three draft classes based on Avg Rk.
All eight players with an Avg Rk better than 6.0 were eventually drafted in the Top 5 of their class - a rather remarkable stat, and one that Alex Sarr (1.8), Nikola Topic (4.9), Ron Holland (5.4), and Zaccharie Risacher (5.6) would hope to see bear out yet in 2024.
Preposterous as it is to claim that this draft class is “weak”, it is indeed hard to argue that the class isn’t rather bereft of obvious superstar potential. Alex Sarr is our clear top target, clocking in as a near-consensus Top 3 pick across the Internet. But beyond him, we don’t seem to have a dang clue who we like most. Topic, Holland, and Risacher all come in less than a single ranking apart, a full three rankings lower than Sarr. Compare to previous classes - in ‘23, both Scoot and Amen come in ranked higher, and in ‘22 all three of Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero, and Jaden Ivey ranked higher than 2024’s 2nd-highest rated player.
Lower in the rankings, I love to look at tiers - and thanks to a little color coding, it’s pretty plain to see our 2024 tiers.
Reed Sheppard, Isaiah Collier, and Rob Dillingham make up a strongly defined group of fringe lottery point guards. Fascinating to see Collier slide down right into the middle of the two KGB agents; nobody could argue the stats or winning of the Kentucky couplet, but Collier’s role as the primary creator of USC’s offense is certainly a heavier burden than the (cruel and unjust) bench roles Sheppard and Dillingham have operated out of.
Stephon Castle was the most controversial prospect I came across at this point in the cycle. Certain folks see Castle as a Top 5 talent, yet I also referenced two different boards that left him out of their first round altogether. His production and athleticism cannot be denied, but his nebulous role both at UConn and as a theoretical NBA starter leaves some evaluators a little hesitant.
Lastly, note that our last group featured a couple of players - Kyle Filipowski and DaRon Holmes II - that returned to school last year despite maintaining good grades on public draft boards. Both players show up on this list again as 2024 draft prospects, each clocking in a few spots higher than they did at this point last year. Whether they are able to climb higher remains to be seen, but it does seem that early on their decisions are paying dividends.